Dispatches for the curious. Stuff that's neat.
Section: Economics
Friday, October 23, 2026

Kyla Scanlon interviews Austan Goolsbee on vibes versus data

Posted by Captain Queso on Friday October 23, 2026 @3:28AM in Economics
from the feelings-are-not-a-leading-indicator dept.

A central banker explaining, in plain terms, why the numbers and the national mood have stopped agreeing. Scanlon asks the questions you would want asked and lets him think out loud. The low-hire, low-fire labour market is the phrase to remember.

The Chicago Fed president talks about why consumer sentiment has become a weaker guide to spending, what drives people's gloom about prices, the slow-moving jobs market, and whether the AI data-centre boom is a demand shock the Fed needs to watch. The full transcript is free to read.
Read the rest of this story (Kyla Scanlon (Substack))

Kyla Scanlon on the Shrugflation Triangle: oil, AI spending and Treasuries

Posted by Captain Queso on Friday October 23, 2026 @2:47AM in Economics
from the it's-all-connected-man dept.

Plenty of people will tell you the economy feels weird; Scanlon actually draws the wiring diagram. The useful idea here is how three separate stories, energy prices, the data-centre building spree and government borrowing, push on each other. Calm, numerate and free to read.

Scanlon argues that higher oil prices, massive borrowing to fund AI infrastructure, and a large federal deficit are feeding into one another through interest rates and Treasury demand, and looks at who ends up carrying the cost. She backs it with recent figures on fuel prices, consumer sentiment, hyperscaler spending and the fiscal year's books.
Read the rest of this story (Kyla Scanlon (Substack))